"AI will change every industry" is true but useless. The interesting question is how each industry is being changed and at what speed — because that's what tells someone whether they should stay, upskill, or pivot. This is our industry-by-industry reading of Jobs and Skills Australia's 2025 exposure data and 10-year employment projections, with the named roles at risk and the named roles growing in each. Read time: ~15 minutes.
"Financial services" is on the decline list. So is "ICT". But a senior financial adviser or an ICT manager inside those industries is in one of the strongest growth categories in the country. The unit of analysis that matters is the occupation, not the industry. We list industries here because that's how people self-identify ("I work in marketing", "I work in construction"), but everything underneath is about which roles inside each industry are reshaping which way.
Inside almost every white-collar industry, the pattern is the same: AI eats from the bottom of the skills ladder and grows the top. Junior, repetitive, structured-information-processing roles get hollowed out. Senior, judgement-heavy, supervisory roles grow. We point this out repeatedly below because once you see the pattern, the right move (upskill toward judgement, or pivot to an industry where this shape doesn't apply) becomes much clearer.
Every employment projection, exposure score, and shortage rating in this report comes from JSA's 2025 publications. The opinions about what those numbers mean for your career are ours — we cite them as such. JSA is a government body and writes balanced policy prose. Our job is to translate it into something a working person can act on.
JSA 2025 Jobs and Skills Report, Our Gen AI Transition — Occupation data on AI exposure, Employment Projections 2025–2035, and Occupation Shortage List. Augmentation/automation scores are 0–1 (share of an occupation's tasks). For the full methodology see the underlying JSA-2025 report read.
A textbook "hollowing-out" industry. Routine processing and basic advisory roles are being absorbed by software; senior advisory, compliance, and risk specialists are growing. The pay gap between the two ends is widening.
Accounting Clerks & Bookkeepers (aug 0.74, auto 0.71) — on JSA's CGE-modelled decline list. Bookkeepers (aug 0.77, auto 0.69) ditto. Bank Workers (aug 0.67, auto 0.54) — branch headcount has been falling for years and Gen AI accelerates it. Insurance Agents (aug 0.73, auto 0.62) for routine quote-and-bind work. HR Clerks (aug 0.73, auto 0.76) in finance back-office.
Financial Investment Advisers and Managers (aug 0.74, auto 0.48) — augmented, not automated. Land Economists and Valuers (aug 0.71, auto 0.43). Compliance, risk and regulatory specialists (not directly scored but growing strongly per JSA shortage data — regulation drives demand). Insurance Loss Adjusters and Underwriters for complex cases. Pharmacists on JSA's long-training-gap shortage list with 42,413 workers — a credible adjacent destination.
Pathway notes: Inside the industry, the credible move is up — from bookkeeping to advisory support (RG146 / FAS pathways), or from clerical to compliance/risk. Out of the industry, financial-services people transfer well into operations management, practice management (medical/dental/legal), or property/valuation. Avoid lateral moves into other clerical roles in other industries — same shape, same risk.
The most-augmented white-collar industry in Australia. AI doesn't replace marketers — it replaces the entry-level production work marketers used to do, which is how marketing teams hired juniors. The career on-ramp is being removed faster than the career itself.
Advertising and Marketing Professionals (aug 0.79, auto 0.54) — JSA's highest augmentation score in any white-collar occupation. Public Relations Professionals (aug 0.70, auto 0.46) — same pattern, slightly lower exposure. "Sales, Marketing and Public Relations Professionals" appears explicitly on the CGE-modelled decline list. Junior copywriters, social media coordinators, junior media buyers, and content production roles are being absorbed first.
Senior strategy roles. Marketing analytics and data-led decision making. Brand strategy, planning, and customer research — work that requires judgement and stakeholder management. "Advertising, Public Relations and Sales Managers" (Manager category in JSA) projected to grow ~9% of all manager employment by 2035. Performance marketing leaders running paid acquisition with AI tools become 3–5× more productive than non-AI peers.
Pathway notes: The "marketing exec → marketing strategy/analytics" pivot is one of the cleanest in the country. 3–9 months of formal study (analytics certifications, MBA-style strategy modules) plus practice. Out of marketing entirely, the strongest sideways moves are into product management (which already overlaps), customer experience strategy, or commercial/category management in retail. The pivot that almost never works is into other "creative execution" roles in other industries — they're all being augmented the same way.
The most counterintuitive industry in the report. Software engineering is widely assumed to be safe because the workers are technical — but JSA's modelling explicitly places programmers on the 2050 decline list. The picture is sharply U-shaped: juniors compressed, seniors growing fast.
Software and Applications Programmers (aug 0.77, auto 0.63) — explicitly named on JSA's CGE-modelled decline list as "Business and Systems Analysts and Programmers". The work AI absorbs first: boilerplate code, basic CRUD applications, glue logic, test scaffolding, junior QA. ICT Business and Systems Analysts (aug 0.77, auto 0.58) for routine requirements-gathering work. ICT Support Technicians for tier-one helpdesk and ticket triage.
ICT Managers +25.5% by 2035 (aug 0.70, auto 0.38) — one of the strongest growth signals in any occupation. Research and Development Managers +22.8%. Architecture roles, security specialists, ML engineering (a different occupation from "programmer"), data engineering, and platform engineering. The senior end of the field has more demand than supply.
Pathway notes: The "junior programmer → ICT manager" pivot is the most data-defensible one we recommend. Skills are adjacent (technical literacy plus stakeholder management, vendor selection, governance). Training is mostly leadership, architecture, and product thinking — not new technical depth. Out of ICT entirely, technical workers transition well into operations leadership in other industries, technical sales, and product management. Avoid lateral moves into other "junior implementer" roles — that's the part being eaten everywhere.
A broad industry (legal, consulting, engineering, accounting, R&D), and one of the largest single contributors to projected 2035 growth: +250,100 jobs (+18.5%) over the decade. But the growth concentrates almost entirely in senior and specialist roles. Junior and "associate" tier roles are being aggressively reshaped.
Accountants at the junior end (aug 0.73, auto 0.54) — first-pass financial statement prep, basic tax compliance, audit support. Solicitors at the junior end (aug 0.61, auto 0.34) — legal research, document review, contract first-pass review. Junior consultants doing market scans, data gathering, basic synthesis. Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians (in JSA short-training-gap shortage but exposed to AI drafting tools). The pattern: anything an articled-clerk-or-graduate used to do, AI is now doing better and faster.
Civil Engineering Professionals (74,528 workers, suitability-gap shortage). Mining Engineers, Electrical Engineers, Geologists all in suitability-gap shortage. Research and Development Managers +22.8%. Senior partners in legal/accounting firms with judgement and client relationships. Specialist consulting practices (clean energy, AI governance, regulatory compliance) growing fast.
Pathway notes: The honest message for junior professionals in this industry is: you do not have ten years to climb a slow ladder anymore. The bottom rungs are being removed. The realistic shapes are (a) accelerated upskilling toward judgement and client work (Pathway A territory) or (b) lateral pivot into operations, in-house counsel, or industry roles where your domain knowledge is the asset, not the implementation work. Returning to first-pass implementation work in another firm is not a real shape.
A long-running structural decline accelerated by AI, but not a collapse. Retail Trade is projected to add +93,100 jobs (+6.9%) by 2035 — slow growth, with the share of total employment declining from 9.2% to 8.6%. The decline is concentrated in clerical and routine customer-service roles. Physical retail jobs (warehouse, logistics, in-person service) hold up better.
Cashiers and routine sales assistants (cashiering replaced by self-checkout, customer service by chatbots). "General Clerks" and "Receptionists" in retail head offices — on the CGE-modelled decline list. Retail Managers (aug 0.73, auto 0.48) at the small-store level where AI is increasingly handling rostering, stock, and basic analytics. Routine merchandising and category-coordinator roles.
Logistics and warehouse operations (e-commerce growth). E-commerce specialists, performance marketers, and category strategists. Loss prevention, customer experience design, and physical store experience roles (where the customer specifically wants a human). High-end retail and trades-adjacent retail (e.g. flooring, kitchens) where consultation is the product.
Pathway notes: Retail is the industry from which most Pathway B pivots originate. Common destinations: aged care, allied health support (Dental Assistants, Nursing Support Workers), education aides, and trades (electrician, plumber for younger workers; less practical for older). 6–24 months of formal training, government funding usually available (Skills First, fee-free TAFE).
The federal, state and local government workforce. Slow-growth, large, and structurally protected — but the same AI shape applies inside it. Clerical and processing roles are being reshaped; policy, analyst, and senior management roles are growing. The pace of change is slower than the private sector but the direction is identical.
General Clerks (aug 0.68, auto 0.71) — large-scale routine document processing, application triage, scheduling. Customer service officers in service-delivery agencies (Centrelink, ATO, Medicare back-office). "Public Administration and Safety" appears on JSA's CGE-modelled affected-industry list, primarily through routine processing roles.
Policy analysts, intelligence and policy professionals (aug 0.79 — the highest augmentation score in the report, but low automation — AI helps them, doesn't replace them). Cyber security specialists. Senior managers and directors. Compliance and regulatory specialists. "Public Administration and Safety" is the largest-employing industry in the ACT by 2035 — the only state/territory where Health Care isn't first.
Pathway notes: Inside the public sector, the credible move is from clerical to analyst/policy — most agencies have internal capability frameworks that fund this transition. Out of the public sector, ex-government clerical workers transfer well into not-for-profit operations, contractor administration, and compliance roles in regulated industries (financial services, aged care). Job security inside government is real but the comparative comfort makes the upskill harder to motivate — the AI exposure is the same, the deadline is just softer.
A growing industry, mostly AI-resistant at the worker level, and structurally short on people. +160,900 jobs (+11.9%) by 2035. The physical work is some of the lowest-exposure work in the JSA dataset. The biggest barrier to entering construction is the apprenticeship pathway itself — not AI.
Very little, relative to other industries. Some risk for: Civil Engineering Draftspersons (aug 0.71, AI drafting tools accelerating). Construction admin and quantity surveying clerical work. Estimating and tendering — AI tools are improving fast. But the physical trades themselves remain among the lowest-automation occupations in Australia.
Electricians (auto 0.16), Plumbers (auto 0.15), Carpenters and Joiners (auto 0.18) — all on JSA's persistent-shortage list since 2021. Construction Managers (132,040 workers, suitability-gap shortage). Structural Steel and Welding Trades, Cabinet Makers, Painters — all in long-running shortage. Data centre construction electricians earn ~30% premium to standard.
Pathway notes: Construction is the most common pivot destination from Pathway B for younger workers (under ~40). Apprenticeships are 3–4 years but income-supported. For older pivot candidates, supervisory and management entry routes (Cert IV in Building & Construction, Diploma in Project Management) are more realistic. Australian government funding (Skills First, Apprenticeships Incentive System, Skilling Queenslanders for Work) covers most apprenticeship costs.
Stable-share growing industry: +157,700 jobs (+12.4%) by 2035. Persistent teacher shortages, growing education-aide demand, and a structural funding environment that doesn't collapse with the economic cycle. AI augments education work (lesson planning, marking, admin) but doesn't replace the relational core of teaching.
Education-sector administration (rostering, enrolment processing, scheduling). Some routine assessment marking. Junior tutoring and content-development roles for commercial education companies (where AI now produces a credible first draft). Limited overall — the industry is more growing than shrinking.
Secondary School Teachers (151,108 workers — JSA's largest long-training-gap shortage). Early Childhood (Pre-primary) Teachers (70,305, long-training-gap shortage). Education Aides (one of JSA's top growth occupations). VET Teachers / Polytechnic Teachers (35,645 in shortage). Vocational Education Teachers are particularly in demand as JSA's tertiary harmonisation reforms create demand for AI/digital embedding in qualifications.
Pathway notes: Teacher routes for mid-career pivots are long but supported — Master of Teaching (1.5–2 years), permission-to-teach programs in shortage areas. Education aide roles require a Certificate III in Education Support (~6 months) and are accessible to most pivot candidates. VET teaching is the strongest return-on-time option for industry experts — Certificate IV in Training and Assessment (TAE40122) is a 3–6 month qualification that lets you teach your trade or profession.
The single largest growth industry in Australia: +541,900 jobs (+22.9%) over the decade, projected to be the largest-employing industry in every state by 2035 except the ACT. AI augments health work (clinical decision support, admin automation, imaging analysis) but does not replace clinical presence. The pivot destination that fits the largest number of people.
Medical receptionists and practice admin to some degree (aug 0.67, auto 0.66 — bookings and triage automating). Medical billing and coding (highly automatable). Hospital back-office. But the clinical workforce itself is largely outside AI's automation zone — the patterns that protect the work (physical presence, judgement, regulatory framework, professional registration) hold strongly.
Physiotherapists +35.1% by 2035. Health and Welfare Services Managers +27.1%. Dental Assistants +26.8%. Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers +24.7%. Ambulance Officers and Paramedics +22.6%. Aged and Disabled Carers +22.3% by share. Registered Nurses on JSA's "uncertain" shortage driver list (was training gap, now also retention). Allied health assistants, mental health workers, community health workers all growing.
Pathway notes: Healthcare is the most common Pathway B pivot destination by volume. Entry-tier roles (Aged Care, Dental Assistant, Nursing Support, Allied Health Assistant) require Certificate III–IV qualifications, typically 6–12 months, government-subsidised. Mid-tier roles (Diploma of Nursing / Enrolled Nurse) are 18–24 months. Senior clinical roles (Registered Nurse, Physiotherapist, Paramedic) require a bachelor degree — 3 years, longer but very stable career outcomes. The biggest risk in this pathway is not AI; it's retention burnout. JSA has flagged "retention gap" as the primary shortage driver across aged care and clinical-support roles.
Across every white-collar industry — finance, marketing, law, consulting, ICT, government, education — the same pattern holds. Junior and routine work is being absorbed faster than the senior work. People who try to stay at the junior tier "in a safer industry" are usually just moving from one disappearing tier to another. The credible moves are vertical (up the ladder within an industry) or sideways into physical/clinical work that doesn't have a junior-disappearing problem.
Both Healthcare and Construction are projected to add huge numbers of jobs. Both are also dealing with significant retention problems driven by pay, working conditions, and burnout. Growing demand does not automatically mean a good job. When recommending a pivot, the second-order question (will this role still feel like a fair deal in five years?) matters more than the first-order one (is this role growing?).
Victoria has the largest projected ten-year increase by persons (+579,500, +15.3%) — bigger than NSW in absolute terms. Healthcare leads growth in every state and territory except ACT (where public administration leads). Regional Australia's growth concentrates heavily in care, agriculture, and energy-transition trades. If you can move where the work is, your pivot options widen substantially.
JSA's 2035 projections are a model, not a prediction. They assume current policy, current trends, current AI capability trajectories. If any of those break, the picture changes. Our advice to clients is the same: use the data as a guide to which pivots are more credible than others, not as a promise that any specific role will exist in 2035. The point is relative defensibility, not certainty.
This report describes industries. The assessment goes one level deeper — your specific role, your specific exposure scores, three credible shapes for your specific situation, with the training paths and AUD funding routes that apply to you.